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>From: "Ian Pitchford" <ian.pitchford@scientist.com>
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>Date: Mon, 6 Nov 2000 10:13:46 -0000
>Reply-To: "Ian Pitchford" <Ian.Pitchford@scientist.com>
>Subject: [evol-psych] And now for the forecast
>
>THE GUARDIAN
>And now for the forecast
>People have been staring into crystal balls for hundreds of years, sometimes
>with alarming accuracy. But usually they have been hugely, and entertainingly,
>wrong. Jonathan Margolis looks back at the history of futurology - and risks a
>few predictions of his own.
>
>Jonathan Margolis
>Guardian
>
>Monday November 6, 2000
>
>
>Buried deep in the stack at the Bodleian library in Oxford, from which it is
>exhumed on average once every 50 years, lies a forgotten early 18th-century
>book which is both fascinating and disappointing by turns. A rare volume - and
>deservedly so - Memoirs of the 20th Century: Being Original Letters of State
>under George VI was the first ever complete work of futurology.
>
>Written around 1730 by a clergyman, Samuel Madden, it opens intriguingly
>enough, with a letter datelined Constantinople, Nov 3 1997, but sadly goes
>downhill from that point. Madden's 1997 is dominated by a George VI who is a
>mighty world emperor, but most of the book's 527 turgid pages are mired in
>contemporary, 18th-century concerns.
>
>Full text:
>http://www.guardianunlimited.co.uk/Archive/Article/0,4273,4086596,00.html
>
>
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Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
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