all paper will burn

From: Forrest Bishop (
Date: Tue Oct 17 2000 - 13:49:30 MDT

Paul Hughes wrote:
> Transhuman Mailing List
> Forrest Bishop wrote:
> > October 13, 2000
> > "...What had been an unfolding financial dislocation took a dramatic turn for
> > the worst earlier this week. And despite today’s wild rally, it is my view
> > that we are now in the midst of a full-fledged financial crisis.
> I have only this to say:
> Although I am by no means a financial or economic expert, and I have no solid
> reason to believe or doubt that a economic crisis is [imminent], I've noticed that you
> have over the past 6 months focused *exclusively* on this premise. You have chosen
> only to post those predictions that support a 'crisis' thesis, while neglecting all
> other articles to the contrary (and there are plenty -I've looked).

Yes, we are all quite aware of the upbeat side. It was the 'religion' up
until this year.

> Why is that
> Forrest? Why the bias? And why in a negative direction to boot?

The "direction" is neutral. It is one component of a "most probable"
resultant. And yes, I am something of a "financial and economic"
student, and a student of history- the history of money in particular.
 The current running experiment has been run many times before- the
financial crisis of Uruk in 1788 BCE (the city was then abandoned
forever), the Athens real estate bubble of 333 BCE (it required 1000
years for prices to recover the peak), the South Seas Bubble (Isaac
Newton lost most of his fortune, commented to the effect he could
understand physics but not human nature), The Mississippi Scheme, the
canal, railroads, land rushes, 1929, 1989 (Japan), 1997 (Asia), etc.

Take for example the proposition "all paper will burn". This is a
prediction based on centuries of experimental observations, probably
dating to the invention of paper itself.
The invention and use of paper money, or "bills of credit", has a
and well-documented history. This experiment has been run hundreds of
times over the past 1000 years or so, and *always* returns the same
"Paper money returns to its intrinsic value- zero"--Voltaire

What is unique about the present situation is the unprecedented scale,
exceeding 1929 by every measure, for example. The incresing frequency
and amplitude of currency/economic collapses over the past 16 years or
and the increasing frequency and amplitude of global stock, currency and
bond market moves- particularly the past few weeks, are indicative of a
global financial "crisis" or "collapse" in the near term. I posted
months ago that I did not think "they" would be able to keep "it"
until the elections (Nov 7th), I still don't think so, though it is
foolish to time the market. The driver is as always a loss of investor
confidence, which now appears to be occuring.
(Xerox, btw is rumored to be bankrupt.)


Meditate on this:
"...There is a huge difference between controlling an "ongoing price
and battling an ongoing timeline failure of your currency. The first is
controlled through printing restraint, while the second is managed to a
end. Some would sarcastically say "[its] manipulated for [its] longest

[He is referring to the US dollar.]

and this:
"Stocks became the primary tool of
 economic policy in the G-22 many months ago, first and foremost in the
 U.S.. Whatever is harmful to stocks, the vehicle by which the greatest
 government confiscation of wealth ever is being effected, will be
 for neutralization…"

Mania dynamics are different from ordinary bull/bear markets, they
generally result in the destruction of the market itself.
Greenspan knows this.


It is not possible to understand history without understanding economics
and money. Unfortunatly, these subjects are no longer taught in the USA,
so one has to teach oneself.
It is not possible to be a reliable futurist without a grounding in
these matters. More on that later.

It used to amaze me (as it did Newton) that a group-insanity (mania)
can be so pervasive, it does not amaze me anymore. This is a subject I
may return to a bit later.

Check this out:

*The Creature From Jekyll Island*, avaialble at Barnes and Noble
or online:

is an excellent place to begin your re-education. It should be a
required course in grade school. Lots of historical information and
a quick primer on how the Federal Reserve operates (and most central
banks). Unfortunatly, due to length, the author does not go into how
WWII was arranged and financed. It is interesting how much American
gold showed up in Europe after being confiscated in 1933, isn't it?

Forrest Bishop
Institute of Atomic-Scale Engineering

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