Re: Doomsday Argument is Overemphasized

Nick Bostrom (
Fri, 28 Aug 1998 17:08:33 +0000

Colin wrote:

> If the Argument is true then, by the very nature
> of it, there isn't squat we can do.

That's not true. Even under the interpretation that doom will strike soon (just one among several other interpretations), we can reduce the risk of doom by reducing the various empirical threats - black goo, meteor impact, high-energy physics experiment, nuclear or germ warfare, environmental collaps, etc. This will affect the empirical priors that we feed into Bayes' theorem and hence the posterior probabilities that come out.

Nick Bostrom
Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method London School of Economics