Re: Cryonics/Nanotech Skepticism (Was: Schindler's List)

Hal Finney (
Fri, 14 Aug 1998 12:52:08 -0700

Scott Badger writes:
>... I may be mistaken, but I recall that
>you have used the figure of around 5% as your estimate for the probability
>that cryonics will work. As a proponent, *you* don't seem that confident.
>That's a little disheartening to hear from a cryonicist. Within what time
>frame does your estimate apply? 100 years? 200 years? 500 years? Or do you
>see some other future event (e.g. SI) making the arument moot?

Robin Hanson responds:
> My estimate integrates over all those times. It's the probability that I
> will ever be revived if frozen today. And it was ">5%".

Did you take into consideration an estimate of the probability that the Many Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics is correct, and that you can be said to be revived if it occurs in any world that stems from one in which you are frozen? :-)