Re: TWA flight 800

Hal Finney (hal@rain.org)
Sat, 30 Aug 1997 12:58:19 -0700

On the Foresight Exchange game, the claim TWAm is about whether flight 800
was shot down by a missile. The criterion is basically that the missile
story becomes accepted enough as the true explanation that it is reported
as fact by two major newspapers before Jan 1, 2000. This does leave
open the possibility that although the plane actually was shot down by
a missile, there is a successful cover-up which lasts at least another
2 1/2 years.

Presently the claim is trading very low, only around 2 to 3. This means
that the traders basically see only a 2-3% chance that the missile story
will turn out to be the accepted truth in the given time frame.

There is also a claim TWAC which says that a bomb blew up the plane,
and that is trading in the same very low range.

At this point the traders on FX seem to strongly believe that neither
a bomb nor a missile blew up the plane, or else that a coverup of these
events will be successful.

Hal