Re: Market Estimate of Aging Progress
Sat, 23 Aug 1997 07:49:08 -0400 (EDT)

In a message dated 97-08-16 07:58:00 EDT, Robin Hanson forwards an abstract
of a paper by Charles Mullin:

> The paper develops methods to
> identify and estimate the mortality implicit in the market
> prices of such claims by identifying survival functions from
> prices of contracts that differ in their duration. Utilizing
> these methods, we provide estimates using cohort-specific
> prices of US term life insurance contracts in 1990-96 for
> individuals aged 60 in each calendar year. Our main finding
> is that the mortality patterns inferred from these prices
> indicate a continued decline in cohort-specific mortality
> at rates equal to or greater than recent historical trends;
> about a 5 percent reduction in relative terms in the
> mortality hazards per successive cohort.

Any idea what this fellow means by "cohort"? I've always understood it to
mean the group of people sharing a birth-year. Does this mean 5% per year?
I'd like to believe that it does, but this seems very optimistic.

Greg Burch <>----<>
Attorney ::: Director, Extropy Institute ::: Wilderness Guide -or-
"Good ideas are not adopted automatically. They must
be driven into practice with courageous impatience."
-- Admiral Hyman G. Rickover