Amara's law

From: Brian Atkins (
Date: Tue Jul 17 2001 - 21:10:52 MDT

No, not that Amara. No, not that one either. :-)

Smart Remarks from SMART People: Richard Dalton
  "The paraphrase you attribute to Paul Saffo in SMART Letter
   #56 [that we tend to overestimate the short-term impact of
   technological change and underestimate its long-term impact
   -- David I] is actually "Amara's Law," named after the
   long-term IFTF president who originally proposed this
   elegantly simple view of emerging technology. There is some
   disagreement among IFTers about the exact wording, but your
   version captures its essence."
Richard Dalton [] of the Institute for the
Future, by email on 6/12/01.

Copyright 2001 by David S. Isenberg -- -- 1-888-isen-com

Brian Atkins
Director, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence

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