Re: If all the ice melted...

Date: Mon Jul 02 2001 - 16:26:22 MDT

In a message dated 7/2/01 11:11:30 AM, writes:

>> By extropolation, the value of improved land increases at similar
>> rates to the wealth of the economy.
>Ouch! This isn't true! (ooopps).
>Improved land goes through a huge devaluation in the brief
>period when we ramp up the nano-constructor-bots.

It's true historically. Nanobots might change things, but the
timing of their occurance and even the claim that they'll be
vastly superior to current construction nanobots (e.g., trees)
are quite speculative. If anything, the prospect of vastly increased
growth rates in the future will push up land values as they
can safely be expected to be worth a lot in the future.

>> It will be just as expensive for Earth of 20 years hence to
>> buy out several large cities, a huge expanse of farmland,
>> and various historical and biological assets of 20 years
>> hence as it will be for current Earth to buy the
>> current assets.

>Nope. I expect in previously uninhabitable regions with
>interesting scenic vistas land values will increase while
>regions with high population densities land values will
>decrease. Land (or ocean regions) with high solar insolation
>will increase in value until solar power satellites and
>planetary dismantlement steal the sun.

I think the most important value will continue to be people
and their interactions. Relocating cities and losing various
historical assets will continue to be very expensive.

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