Well, since Greg asked the question and Mike and Eugene
offered a couple of responses (very informative responses,
but IMO wrong), I'll throw my 2 cents worth into the pot.
The Dark Horse will win the race...
Mike offered up a list of current technologies but missed
several such a Cadmium Telluride, see:
http://www.nrel.gov/ncpv/documents/thinfilm.html
and the bibliography at
http://www.nrel.gov/ncpv/eshbib.html
Also missing is CuInSe2, being manufactured by Siemens
apparently. See
http://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/solar/comparing_pv_arrays.htm
While the efficiency on the thin film arrays is poor, the
manufacturing cost advantages may win out. The area
of most American roofs is large and if you can roll out
electricity collectors as thin as plastic sheets on them
you have a big win. Europe and Japan might have to go
an alternate route.
Now, then Mike in a burst of "go Space" enthusiasm, chimes
in with:
> How things will fall out is that by 2030 solar power sats will start
> getting built, and an orbital network of MASER power transmission
> systems will transport energy to key sites on each continent. Prime
> location for the power sats will be at the Sun-earth L2 point, where
> the sats will also act to reduce total flux reaching earth, thus helping
> to offset any global warming effects whether they
> be a result of pollution or Malenkovich Cycles.
>
> Fossil fuels will continue to be used for transportation beyond this point,
> but not for static uses, although work will be done on using reverse fuel
> cells to produce natural gas from electricity. Hydrogen will NOT be the
> fuel of choice, due to its corrosive properties and low density.
Rasberries...
First of all if we don't have diamondoid nanotech by 2030, I will
publically eat a hat (cotton please) at Extro 19 (assuming it is after
2030). If we have diamondoid nanotech, then space power satellites become
irrelevant. (We will have the entire power output of the sun
at our or "someones" disposal.)
Eugene had a closer hit with his comments related to home based fuel cells.
There are lots of sources of methane and ways to produce it from biomass
or the sun. Fuel cell developers are pushing hard to get the sizes
and costs down to something home owners would install (ala heat pumps).
If the costs come down enough home owners will install these
as an alternate energy source (avoiding brownouts that will
strike the nationwide or global distribution nets because they
don't build enough reserve capacity for extreme situations)
then this may become Greg's solution to putting a smile on
your face when the sun is roasting you (I may be hot but at
least money is flowing into my bank account...).
Worth noting is -- if you trust the nationwide "grid" approach then why
are companies in California, such as Oracle, building their own power
facilities?
Homes can afford to lose power -- eBusinesses cannot!
Now, since I've just finished my sometimes discussed about in hushed
whispers business plan for the development of biotech based
self-replicating systems I'll toss my vote in for the *dark horse*.
The *dark horse* will be based on light harvesting methods
currently found in plants. Once these systems are cloned
and available as easily manipulated laboratory tools, scientists
will develop energy harvesting, storage and production systems
based on biotechnology based self-replicating systems.
This solves the problems of production costs, capital costs,
etc. that have plagued other renewable energy sources. This
will not be simple, but the payoff is big! Really big! -- being able
to "paint on" your power generation system that is self-organizing,
self-repairing and entirely local (producing revenue if it is connected
to the grid...) argue that this is the way to go.
Self-Replicating systems beat overcoming gravity. No contest.
The market is clear -- you can have grass that you have to mow
or you can have grass that pumps excess energy into the grid.
Which do you prefer?
Mike, go back and do the calculations on how many sq meters of lawn
are required to supply the electricty needs of a city like New York.
I suspect the suburbanites win...
While I would love to see the energy storage and retrieval aspects solved by
high temperature superconductors, I suspect that they will first be
solved by biotech (with horrible losses compensated for by the large
collection areas enabled by self-replicating systems) and the subsequently
improved upon by much more efficient systems based on diamondoid nanotech.
Sorry if I burst any balloons.
Robert
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