Re: Feynman prize in 3-4 years?

From: Robin Hanson (
Date: Mon Jul 24 2000 - 06:53:54 MDT

Robert Bradbury wrote:
>In a rash of enthusiasm, I said...
> > > I would be very surprised if Mitre doesn't produce a molecular computer
> > > and win the Feynman Prize within the next 3-4 years. ...
>Then on Sun, 23 Jul 2000, Chris Hibbert wrote:
> > You are a Foresight Senior Associate, aren't you? If so, you should
> invest
> > some money in the Foresight Idea Futures market so you can publicly stand
> > behind your prediction and make some money on it. ...
>Oh oh. Someone calling my cards... Yes, I'm an SA. Most of my pennies
>are allocated for shorter term requirements at this time. I may reconsider
>after this fall's nanotech conference if Mitre seems any closer.

Surely you could spare $20 to invest couldn't you? I admit to being one
of the people betting against early success here - I currently have offers
out to sell the "Prize won by 2010" claim at 30%. Care to elaborate on your
reasons for optimism? To me it seems quite challenging to within ten years
design and construct 32 copies each of a robot arm capable of .1 nanometer
positional accuracy which fits within a 100 nm cube, and of an 8-bit binary
adder which fits within a 50 nm cube.

Robin Hanson
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323

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