> Date: Wed, 12 Jul 2000 12:52:38 -0700 (PDT)
> To: extropians@extropy.com
> From: "Robert J. Bradbury" <bradbury@aeiveos.com>
> Reply-to: extropians@extropy.com
> Subject: Re: No nanotech before AI
> I would be very surprised if Mitre doesn't produce a molecular computer
> and win the Feynman Prize within the next 3-4 years. I'd be even more
> surprised if HP/IBM/Lucent do not demonstrate prototype molecular computers
> within the next 3-8 years.
Robert,
You are a Foresight Senior Associate, aren't you? If so, you should invest
some money in the Foresight Idea Futures market so you can publicly stand
behind your prediction and make some money on it. Senior Associates can
join
the market by sending money to the Foresight office. So far, all the people
who have joined have done so at one of the face-to-face gatherings, but
we've
recently decided to allow people to join anytime.
At this point the amount of money in the market is fairly small, but I'm hoping
(by encouraging Senior Associates to join the market, and gradually
expanding
to others interested in the future) to make it much bigger.
The date of the Feynman Grand Prize was the subject of some of the most active
claims on the exchange at the gathering in May. There are three claims
saying
that the prize will be won by 2010, by 2015, and by 2020. Before the gathering
the market put the odds at 60-65% of an award by 2020, 30-40% by 2015, and
15-18% by 2010. At this year's meeting someone believed that the prizes are
pretty likely to be awarded by 2010, and a near certainty by 2015, and so
they
bought up all the offered coupons available for less than 90. Others saw
this
activity, and quickly bid the prices back down. At the moment, the odds are
listed as follows: for 2010 25-30; for 2015 40-50; and for 2020 65-75.
There's a longer report I wrote on the IF activities at the gathering on Nanodot:
http://nanodot.org/article.pl?sid=00/07/18/0431241&mode=thread
People on this list who are not Foresight Senior Associates can find out
more
about the program at: http://foresight.org/SrAssoc/index.html
Chris
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