I wrote:
> Hardware and upload compilation will become cheap enough to
> profitably run uploads for lower than then-current wages when
> human labor is still highly valued (i.e., before strong AI),
> and substantially before most individuals can afford to
> non-destructively upload themselves.
>
>Given this premise, most first uploads would be corporate projects,
>and such uploads would have a first-mover advantage in filling niches.
Robert Bradbury wrote:
>I think the hardware becoming cheap enough to compete with humans
>will take a while. ... So any uploads will be competing with augmented
>humans which is going to make their operating costs and performance
>requirements even more difficult.
This seems to me a rather small issue compared with the others involved.
Almost all hardware so far and that I can envision that enhances the
productivity of humans will also enhance the productivity of uploads.
>To get the hardware "cheap enough", you need a driver for the research
>required to quickly advance the curve on what is likely to be highly special
>purpose hardware. ... I agree that uploads, especially if you can remove
>the consciousness, would make an ideal "killer app". ... At the same time
>it is going to be a very risky proposition until we have more fundamental
>knowledge on how the brain works. ...
All true, but all largely beside the point of the above premise/conclusion.
Either question the premise, question that the conclusion follows from the
premise, or accept the conclusion.
Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
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