Re: missle intercepts using game theory

From: Spike Jones (
Date: Thu Jul 13 2000 - 00:02:30 MDT

Michael S. Lorrey wrote:

> It just seems stupid to me for engineers to be taking what seems to be a rifle
> approach when what they need is a shotgun...

Mike there is a school of thought that holds this view. Right
now the other is in fashion, but consider this: every weapon
system must evolve and develop over time, otherwise it
can be defeated, like the Maginot Line and the Great Wall.
Missile defense is only 30 some years old. You can be sure
that some time in the next 30 to 50, a team will develop a
kill vehicle that carries something analogous to a number of
shotgun shells. Look up ERINT on the web, see how much
of that material is declassified (I dont know myself).

Regarding apocalyptic views, extropians can be somewhat
like the religionists in this way: assuming that if something
doesnt happen in the next 20-30 years, then it will never
happen. Each would give different reasons. The religionists
might cite the empending apocalypse, the extropian the
impending singularity. I would suggest we consider the
possibility that there exists some unknown or unforeseen
mechanism that delays both nanotech and the singularity.
Under those conditions, we will be in the perilous position
of needing to extend our defensive systems far beyond
current technology, lest it be overcome. spike

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