Re: Near-Term Scenarios

Hal Finney (
Mon, 11 May 1998 10:41:58 -0700

I posted last year about a set of predictions by the "resident futurist"
at British Telecom labs, at:

They are sorted by technology and then by date within categories.
Unfortunately there is no accompanying discussion or justification,
which is a shame since the dates he gives seem implausibly optimistic.

For example, in 1998 in the biotech/medical field he predicts the use of
artificial muscle in heart transplants; home diagnostic systems with
daily health check-up; virtual reality based exercisers in homes; AI
based elderly/handicapped support devices; and an artificial pancreas.
By 2000 he further predicts artificial blood; disability assistance
devices using thought recognition; full personal medical records stored
on smart cards; and artificial ears.

I won't say he's going to be wrong about all of these, but I'd be surprised
if more than one or two of these nine items occured in the predicted time