Re: Re:Plane crashes and other accidents
ChuckKuecker (ckuecker@mcs.net)
Wed, 15 Apr 1998 21:06:04 -0500 (CDT)
At 17:59 4/15/98 -0500, you wrote:
>
>> >>As people's lifespans slowly but surely start to increase, the frequency
>> >>of death from "unnatural causes" will also increase.
>>
> This doesn't make sense to me. Longer life spans would not increase the
>_frequency_ of unnatural deaths. Let's say you would normally live 100
>years and you are risk-aversive to the degree that you have a 1% chance of
>dying an unnatural death over the length of your life-span. If you then
>become able to live for 200 years and maintain that same level of
>risk-aversiveness, then (all other things being equal) you will still have a
>1% chance of dying an unnatural death. It's just that 1% of 100 is only
>one-half of 1% of 200.
>
>And if your life was extended indefinitely (to infinity), there would be a
>1% probablity times infinity (equivalent to 100% probability) that you would
>die of an unnatural cause eventually (even if you significantly reduced your
>exposure to risk). Am I right people?
>
I think this would apply only in an individual case. The previous post seemd
to consider more than one person.
If you look at a population, rather than an individual, the frequency of
accidental deaths to natural ones must rise as the average lifespan
increases, unless you also have a corresponding increase in safety.
I can't conceive of living in a totally risk-free environment - no spice in
life! We all must decide for ourselves what constitutes an acceptable risk.
Of course, I would not welcome risk due to another person's attempts to
relieve HIS boredom!
Chuck Kuecker