I addition to the variables of tired/not and smart/dumb, my model
includes how much one cares about being accepted. Most smart people
are ambitious, and won't generate or express ideas that would get them
in trouble in the circles they care about. Some people don't care as
much about this, and so are willing to express wilder ideas.
In areas where ideas are likely to be accepted, I tend to look to
established authorities for the best ideas. But in areas where
creative ideas are likely to get people into trouble, I look more
toward the fringe, where the smart outcasts are mixed in with the
clueless.
Robin D. Hanson hanson@hss.caltech.edu http://hss.caltech.edu/~hanson/