Re: Clueless Bio Futurists

From: Emlyn (
Date: Fri May 18 2001 - 07:58:31 MDT

From: "dwayne " <>
To: <>
Sent: Friday, May 18, 2001 6:42 PM
Subject: Re: Clueless Bio Futurists

> [ Charset ISO-8859-1 unsupported, converting... ]
> > > Hi,
> > >
> > > > Looks like procedings from a conference I attended last year.
> > > > They're not clueless, given that you reject a singularity
> > > > and anticipate human expansion will follow a sigmoid curve.
> > > > While we all agree the sigmoid is unlikely until we bump
> > > > the limits of nature, others disagree. A lot genuinely
> > > > believe we'll knock ourselves off soon.
> > >
> > > Yeah, I'm one of them. 30 years, I'd say.
> > >
> > > Dwayne
> > >
> >
> > You've got the conch shell, Dwayne. I'd like to hear your reasoning.
> The entire history of the human race.

We've survived it so far :-)

> you're kidding, right? You really think we will survive the mucking about
that is being
> done now?

Maybe not exactly you and me. I'd say we are in for the classic chinese
"interesting times", no doubt about it. But extinction? That's a tough one.

> I understand people here are a *bit* biased in favour of tech, but look at
the monkeys
> pushing the buttons and tell me we are all safe.

You know, we haven't even killed ourselves with nukes yet, nor even a really
very large proportion of our population. Or with bioweapons. That's either a
damned miracle, or some hint that our crazy world has some kinds of checks
and balances built in somewhere. Or a bit of both.

> > I don't think you are alone in this idea, although I am yet to be
> > of it's validity. If I keep seeing documentaries about Easter Island,
> > though, I might start having nightmares...
> Well, basically, I think some bio-weapon will get loose and do us in, or
something will
> stuff up the biosphere and take us out.

Well, ok, that's not an unusual position to support. Leaving aside realism,
I'm not sure how useful it is to go down that path; just not very
constructive. But, that's a personal choice.

> My current long-term plans involve somewhere remote and defensible,
ostensibly because I
> like the bush and want to set up an eco-village/community thing, but I'm
also aware that
> such a device would be mighty useful at some point in the future, at least
until I can
> afford an asteroid stocked with supermodel DNA and a clone factory.
> I'm less pessimistic about some funky physics prac taking out this end of
the universe,
> but the biologicals are just WAY yoo fuzzy for me to feel comfortable
with. We are
> tinkering with incredibly complex systems, without understanding what we
are tinkering
> with, let alone what the effects of our tinkering will be.

Well, heading for the hills wont save you if you are right. Getting off
planet is a decent idea... I think a lot of us support getting offworld and
establishing something of humanity elsewhere, as a racial backup plan.


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