> > >Tech prognostication is optimistic always in the short
> > >term, laughably pessimistic always in the long term.
> >
> Anders Sandberg wrote: ...then we better reevaluate what we think. After
> all, we
> transhumanists seem to be optimistic about both near and far
> developments. Hence we better be more cautious about the near future and
> the speed various transforming technologies appear, while our wild far
> future extrapolations might be too *mild*.
Clarke's rule: long term predictions are always too pessimistic.
Extropians corollary: long term predictions are always too
pessimistic, even when Clarke's rule is taken into account.
I suspect the long term future will have at least some aspects
that are beyond our current imaginations. spike
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