Here is a problem that I left off my original post
because I thought that it was too similar to one of
the four. But maybe not. Possibly, it may clarify
the current discussion.
5. There are two cards in a hat: one is red on one side
and blue on the other side. The other is red on both
sides. You reach into a hat and select one of the
cards at random, and slap it down on the table. If a
red surface is now showing, what is the probability
that the other side is red?
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