Re: Primes and Probability

From: Spike Jones (
Date: Sat May 12 2001 - 23:51:11 MDT

> Spike writes
> >Now calculate the cumulative probability of C+2 and C+4 prime,
> >then C+6 also prime, and so on. What did you find out?

Lee Corbin wrote:

> All I know is (1) one of C+2, C+4, C+6 is composite, so summing
> the probability is going to start giving a funny result, (2) 1/lnx
> is a rather poor approximation, and so summing it is doubly suspicious.

Thats right, but you started your sentence with "All I know is..." and
listed two truths, but in fact these are not all you know. I kinda tricked

you, since I started with having you randomly pick two primes {non-2
both}, multiply them to generate C. So you know that C is odd, as are
C+2 and C+4, etc, so the probability of prime approximation needs
to be adjusted accordingly. {8-]

Before I belabor this whole thing more than I already have on a list
that is not primarily about primes, let me just do this: I wish to put
together a paper on this topic which I have been thinking about way
too much for the past year, regarding predicting the next record prime,
then posting it on a website.

I wish to draw parallels between that concept and predicting the time of
the singularity, for oddly enough, both problems, predicting the
and predicting the next record prime, present similar paradoxes.

Unfortunately I dont expect I will have it ready by E5, because I
need to read The Fountainhead and Atlas Shrugged, plus study
Eliezer's latest work before then, otherwise I risk being left behind
in what promises to be the best discussions I will hear in this year.

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