Re: I strongly disagree with Lee's answer

From: Emlyn \(onetel\) (emlyn@one.net.au)
Date: Sat May 12 2001 - 01:10:50 MDT

So, if he says "is that your final choice", you say "No, no, no", and choose
another door, 50% chance.

On the other hand, in this scenario, if he does show you another door, you
never switch.

Of course, in that second case it's probably not possible to know if you are
playing the normal or extro version...

Emlyn
----- Original Message -----
From: "Eliezer S. Yudkowsky" <sentience@pobox.com>
To: <extropians@extropy.org>
Sent: Saturday, May 12, 2001 2:03 PM
Subject: Re: I strongly disagree with Lee's answer

> "Emlyn (onetel)" wrote:
> >
> > Eliezer wrote:
> > > For example, suppose that you're on a game show called "ExtroQuiz" and
> > > there are three doors: A, B, and C. One door has a prize behind it.
You
> > > pick door C. The game show host opens up door A, and shows you that
it's
> > > empty. What is the probability that the prize is behind door B?
> > > 0%. Why? Because the game show host *knows* the standard answer to
this
> > > riddle, *knows* that most Extropians will switch to B, and he opens A
*if
> > > and only if* the prize is actually behind C.
> >
> > On ExtroQuiz, if you pick door C, and the prize is behind door B,
apparently
> > the gameshow host does not open door A and show that it is empty. What,
> > then, does the host do instead?
>
> Nothing - just says "Is that your final answer?" in portentous tones, with
> no accompanying demonstration or additional information. He doesn't
> *want* you to change your choice.
>
> -- -- -- -- --
> Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/
> Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
>

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