Re: Risk vs. Payoff (was Re: Alcor on KRON)

From: Anne Marie Tobias (
Date: Tue May 08 2001 - 17:40:46 MDT

I think that even this conversation is moot... Why would any
body try to argue against a foolish outlook? You just point
at them and go "FOOLISH"... that should be sufficient... Yes?

A person either believes in insurance or they don't. We call
the people who don't victims and if they're really lucky victims
we call them survivors.

My belief has nothing to do with it. The only alterntive that
insures I even have a whisper of a chance of surviving a car
crash, or coronary, or having the International Space Station
fall on me, is to get my vital bits into cryosuspension, as quickly
as possible after the signs of life leave the meat... Everything
other option has me recycling carbon, nitrogen, and working
at my own little personal entropy.

Brian Atkins wrote:

> If you are that optimistic re: the Singularity, then why worry about the
> here and now at all? If you were 100% convinced that the Singularity can
> be made to occur soon, AND that it will be a vastly beneficial Singularity,
> then why aren't you cancelling your vacation trips and donating every
> single spare DM you've got to SIAI or another organization that you think
> will accelerate the arrival date?

This is moot... people will believe that doomsday is tomorrow, and do
nothing more that make sure they have a lawnchair in a good position
to watch it all happen.

> The fact is, no one can be that certain. You have to have a backup plan
> just in case.

Of course not, that was never the question... it has much more to do
with am I somebody who covers my bases, or somebody let's the
chips fall where they may...

> Not to mention the fact that it would really suck to die in an accident
> or other premature way right before the Singularity, and not make it to
> it because you passed on cryonics.

Now you're just making sense... this isn't a sensible conversation, it has
nothing to do with sense... the only sensible choice is to set up some
kind of insurance policy that pays for cryonics if you bite the semi big

> Christian Szegedy wrote:
> >
> > I think, you forget an important point in this discussion:
> >
> > What if the singularity comes before I die, rendering the
> > money I spent on cryonics useless?
> >
> > This changes the risk/payoff matrix this way:
> >
> > Not signed up Signed up
> > Singularity occures
> > before I die or
> > cryonics doesn't A A-C
> > work
> >
> > Singularity comes A A-C+L
> > after I die and
> > cryonics works
> >
> > So if you are optimistic enough, you don't sign up!
> >
> > Best regards, Christian Szegedy

Lame arguement...
On the Whoops I missed Singularity side:
   if it's an insurance policy that you can change, you don't
   spend the money till your hinny needs a liquid N2 bath
   anyway... so you only spends it if ya needs it...

On the flip side...
   you assume that money will be something more valuable
   then funny paper with old dead white guys on it after the
   singularity hits... interesting thought... hmmmm.

Christian... didn't anybody ever wave a boy scout at you???
Ever heard of BE PREPARED? or how about MURPHY's
LAW??? One takes meaningful and thoughful precautions
to insure that one's vital contribution to the species remains
intact... your arguement verges on a Darwinian Selection
Factor... think about it.

Marie Tobias

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