Re: Fun with Bayes' Theorem

From: scerir (
Date: Fri May 04 2001 - 08:47:17 MDT

> 3. You're on the Monte Hall show, and there is a big prize
> behind one curtain, and junk prizes behind the other two
> curtains. You pick one of the three at random. Monte
> then opens one of the other curtains and shows you a
> junk prize, and asks if you still want to keep playing.
> You say, "Yes, but let me switch my choice to the other
> curtain!". Monte says, "That's weird," but allows the
> switch. What is the probability of your getting the big
> prize? (As is widely known, Marilyn Vos Savant humiliated
> some experienced mathematicians with this old problem.)


and, then

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