Re: 1929 deja vu

Date: Fri Apr 28 2000 - 08:45:48 MDT

In a message dated 4/28/00 5:33:05 AM Pacific Daylight Time, writes:

<< When industries are heavily invested in current technologies to increase
 production, and market demand suddenly drops by a large margin, you will
 wind up with many bankrupt companies (whose market value has evaporated)
 and many displaced employees. The high enemployment and the loss of
 capital value both can cause severe economic turmoil if that industry is
 a large enough sector of the economy.
    Your point is well made. I don't want to pull a "gotcha" on you but
normally that doesn't happen. Henry Ford made his first auto around 1905 and
as late as 1945 I saw horses being used for everyday transportation of goods.
 By that time they were used infrequently but it took that long to phase them
    I am trying to come up with a massive change in a major industry and the
closest I can come is the switch from vinyl records to CDs. However that
seemed to take five or ten years and it doesn't qualify as a major industry
in my mind.
    How about the switch from cottage industries to large factories in
England? Does anyone know how long that took?
    I also doubt very much that the switch to Mollers Aircar would be all
that fast. The operation of those aircraft would require a license. If we
put really large numbers in the air our air control systems would have to be
upgraded tremendously. In addition we would no doubt keep the roads and road
transportation as our primary freight mover.
    As to the disruption of auto plants and auto workers. The big auto
makers would invest in aircar companies as they have invested in each other.
BTW, are you aware of the percentage of Japanese auto makers that are
partially owned by Detroit companies? It is substantial. Finally auto
plants would close, be bought up by aircar companies with a large number of
the same investors. The auto workers would be rehired to make aircars and in
a few years the UAW or another union would have them organized.
Ron H.

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