Re: Y2K

Ken Kittlitz (
Fri, 12 Feb 1999 10:04:57 -0700

At 10:44 AM 2/11/99 -0800, Max More wrote:

[Regarding Y2K...]

>If we can agree on some specific claim about unrest in the US and some of
>these other points, I'm willing to bet money against the doomsayer view.

I can't resist putting in a plug for the Foresight Exchange, an online implementation of Robin Hanson's Idea Futures concept. The exchange has a number of claims related to the consequences of Y2K; thus, interested parties can bet (trade) based on what they think those consequences are going to be. The exchange doesn't use real money, but it's possible to track who has traded on which claim at what price, for reputation purposes.

Some of the Y2K claims:

Claim bid/ask/lst Short description URL

Y2Kdth 56/ 60/ 60 >=200 deaths caused by Y2K bug Y2Kstk 51/ 64/ 60 Y2K closes US Stock trading Y2Knuc 75/ 88/ 85 Y2K % Nuke Plants operational

Of course, the prices may be somewhat biased: someone who really expects dire Y2K consequences will figure that the exchange is unlikely to be operational next year, meaning that they wouldn't be able to collect on their winning predictions.

Ken Kittlitz			Administrator, Foresight Exchange
AudeSi Technologies Inc.		personal: