Re: Projections in the State of the Union address

Terry Donaghe (
Fri, 22 Jan 1999 04:50:21 -0800 (PST)

---Alexander 'Sasha' Chislenko <> wrote:
> In the State of the Union Address, Clinton suggested that
> some quantitative projections:
> - number of elderly Americans set to double by 2030
> - Social Security trust fund will be exhausted by 2032
> - total budget surplus in the next 15 years will be 4 trillion dollars
> - the proposed investment plan of 60% of the budget surplus will keep
> Social Security sound for 55 years.
> These figures should be based on careful models of economic growth,
> inflation rates, longevity, and other related factors for the next
> 15-30-55 years.
> I wonder if these estimates are published.
> I would be particularly interested in seeing the estimates for
> the error margins in these forecasts... (If this is at least an
> attempt to produce serious statistics, the data of this scale and
> importance should be backed up _very_ carefully).
> Is the U.S. government, the ultimated legal entity in the country,
> responsible to any degree for its statements? I.e., would anybody
> there suffer if these projections appear to be complete bogus?
> I would find it more likely that there will be no budget surplus
> in the next 15 years, the next 30 years will see dramatic changes
> in demographic patterns because of changes in global economy and
> health-related sciences, and that Social Security, U.S.A, and
> American dollar will not exist in their current form in 55 years.
> I am not sure humans will exist in their current form at that time,
> either, but being a responsible person, I would not make forecasts
> with a large margin of error :-)
> Apparently, at least one of these two forecasts is seriously
> delusionary. Which one(s), do you think? And more importantly:
> does it matter?
When the government still has to borrow more than $100 Billion a year, there is no budget surplus. It is a lie propogated by the statists. The sad thing is that most American's buy the fact that there is a surplus, and yet they don't demand their "over-taxed" dollars back. We are certainly a country of sheeple.

Terry Donaghe:

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