Re: life extension vs. natural law
19 Jan 1999 19:50:40 -0000

"Gina Miller" <> wrote:

> I'm in error for not recalling where I read that, but I did read that
> number 3338. Maybe it was speculated the hopes of recognizing that our
> environment would have an effect as well any manipulation to the aging

I'm guessing it was an accident rate calculation. Assuming no disease or old age, but given a certain level of fatal accidents, how long can you expect to go without accidentally getting squished?

If you have a 1/10,000 rate per year, then you have a 37% chance of living to 10,000, and a 72% change of living to 3338. With a 2/10000 death rate you have a 50% chance of living to 3338. (Those are ages, not years since AD.)

Advanced medicine saves more lives but doesn't help squished brains. People might take more risks given the medicine, maintaining the current rate. Backups would change things a lot.

-xx- Damien Raphael Sullivan X-)