ANNOUNCEMENT: Moravec paper

Nick Bostrom (
Mon, 23 Mar 1998 18:05:01 +0000

The first issue of the Journal of Transhumanism is now out.

Also, for those who haven't yet become members of the World
Transhumanist Association (free of charge), there is now an automatic
registration page at

When will computer hardware match the human brain?
Hans Moravec
Journal of Transhumanism. 1998. Vol. 1
(Received Dec. 1997)

This paper describes how the performance of AI machines tends to
improve at the same pace that AI researchers get access to faster
hardware. The processing power and memory capacity necessary to match
general intellectual performance of the human brain are estimated.
Based on extrapolation of past trends and on examination of
technologies under development, it is predicted that the required
hardware will be available in cheap machines in the 2020s.

(Feel free to forward this to any other mailinglists or newsgroups
that might be interested.)

Nick Bostrom
Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
London School of Economics