Also, for those who haven't yet become members of the World
Transhumanist Association (free of charge), there is now an automatic
registration page at http://www.transhumanism.com/join.htm
When will computer hardware match the human brain?
Hans Moravec
Journal of Transhumanism. 1998. Vol. 1
(Received Dec. 1997)
ABSTRACT
This paper describes how the performance of AI machines tends to
improve at the same pace that AI researchers get access to faster
hardware. The processing power and memory capacity necessary to match
general intellectual performance of the human brain are estimated.
Based on extrapolation of past trends and on examination of
technologies under development, it is predicted that the required
hardware will be available in cheap machines in the 2020s.
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_____________________________________________________
Nick Bostrom
Department of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific Method
London School of Economics
n.bostrom@lse.ac.uk
http://www.hedweb.com/nickb