Re: Why growth may stay slow

Robin Hanson (hanson@econ.Berkeley.EDU)
Wed, 18 Mar 1998 17:11:34 -0800

Dan C. writes:
>> The following analysis suggests, however, that if growth rates are limited
>> by the average return on investment (ROI), growth rates may be relatively
>> insensitive to technology, and hence long remain near historical levels. ...
>Robin, I'm not sure I follow your argument. The "explosive growth" argument
>is that certain technological improvements will increase the productivity of
>technologists. even if the real investment rate in innovation is flat, the
>rate of technological improvement will increase because of the productivity

If productivity can improve very quickly even while the rate of return on
investment (ROI) stays low, then my argument for low ROI does not imply slow
growth in productivity.

Robin Hanson
RWJF Health Policy Scholar, Sch. of Public Health 510-643-1884
140 Warren Hall, UC Berkeley, CA 94720-7360 FAX: 510-643-8614