Re: Age 141?

CurtAdams (
Sun, 15 Mar 1998 20:04:28 EST

In a message dated 3/15/98 4:53:58 PM, Kathryn Aegis wrote:

>>Potential lifespans aren't absolute; the chance of death never goes
>>to 1. With humans the chance of death seems to max out at about
>>40% per year or so. With enough people, or enough luck, you could
>>probably get any age you wanted; it's just that the number of people
>>or amount of luck required goes up fast and exponentially.
>As I understand you, the larger the sample, the larger the resulting

Yes, although the age estimate goes with the logarithm of the sample
size, so the changes aren't generally all that large once your
sample size is decent.

>Has anyone seen any estimates based on the theory of programmed cell

I haven't seen any estimates; it's quite a leap from a cellular-level
aging theory to whole-organism lifespan estimates. Programmed cell
death would probably predict that there is a true wall out there
somewhere. However, even quite old people seem to have a fair number
of divisions left in their fibroblasts, so we'd probably not be that
close to the wall.