Knowledge Doubling Time & Singularity?

From: BigBooster (
Date: Mon Feb 18 2002 - 11:29:12 MST

"This is the Golden Age of Knowledge

Estimated years it took for knowledge to double*

1750 - 1900: 150 yrs
1900 - 1950: 50 years
1950 - 1960: 10 years
Since 1960: Every 5 years

Projection! By the Year 2020
Knowledge Will Double Every 73 Days!

We need to study and standardize on the basic method by which we obtain,
refine, extend and apply knowledge . . . which is, SM-14.

*Reported at the Teacher Education for 21st Century Conference (1992)"

-- Norman W. Edmund


"Progress in medicine is expanding so rapidly that the doubling time for
medical knowledge is now about four years. That means that during the
next four years, we will learn as much about medicine as was discovered
from the beginning of human existence until now." -- Jerry Emanuelson

"Human knowledge now doubles every eight years, and this doubling time
is expected to dwindle to one year by 2020. Computer power doubles in 15
months, he added, and the Internet doubles in a year." -- John L. Roeder

"According to Naisbet (Megatrends) information is increasing at the rate of
40% per year. The increase in information in science is particularly pervasive.
It is said that the doubling time of scientific information, i.e., the time
to double all information, is on the order of 20 months. Between 6,000 and
7,000 scientific articles are written each day." -- Future Directions for


"The totality of human knowledge is increasing exponentially. Estimates of
the doubling time vary, with some people suggesting a doubling of knowledge
every 5 years, and some suggesting an even shorter doubling time."
-- The Future of Information Technology in Education


Frederick Mann

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