RE: a to-do list for the next century

From: Robin Hanson (rhanson@gmu.edu)
Date: Sat Mar 25 2000 - 11:32:42 MST


I wrote:
>Space projects now also seem a waste to
>me; until costs are low enough to allow economies to
>flourish in space, it's just money down the drain.

Greg Bear wrote:
>Against my grain, I also must nod my head, despite years of space
>proselytizing, on Robin's grim assessment of space exploration. Spiritually
>edifying, scientifically fascinating, but that has never cut the cake for
>too long. Still, some clever economic models and justifications could let us
>convince government and entrepeneurs that space money (beyond Near Earth
>Orbit, already profitable) is seed money, a general Geritol boost for the
>whole economy. Might even be true.

Someday space really will be ready to make a profit on. When
people like us approach funders (private and public) to suggest
projects, will they reply "that's what you science fiction sorts
have been saying for over X decades; you've been dead wrong
so far, so why should we believe you now"? Fooling funders into
paying for profitless things now may cost us real big later,
when it really counts.

Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
Asst. Prof. Economics, George Mason University
MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030
703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323



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