From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Sun Aug 24 2003 - 12:57:24 MDT
Robin Hanson wrote:
> At 07:59 AM 8/21/2003 -0700, Robert Bradbury wrote:
>
>> Interesting, it looks like the SIRTF telescope *is* going
>> to be used to conduct a fairly large IR survey [1]. Not
>> quite as big as what WIRE was going to do but still probably
>> large enough to pick up MBrains at various temperatures.
>> The 24, 70 and 160 micron wavebands correspond to temperatures
>> of 121K, 41K and 18K respectively. Certainly quite interesting
>> temperatures for moderately advanced MBrains (human body temperature
>> is 311K).
>
> Care to offer any probability estimates of the chances of seeing
> certain things by certain dates?
Intuitively, the odds seem like they should be in the range of a
thousand-to-one for any technological artifacts being spotted, so by the
rule of calibration I'll offer a probability of 86% against.
-- Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/ Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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