Re: Fermi "Paradox"

From: Robert J. Bradbury (bradbury@aeiveos.com)
Date: Mon Aug 04 2003 - 01:04:02 MDT

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    On Mon, 4 Aug 2003 Spudboy100@aol.com wrote:

    > Jef:
    >
    > <<I suspect that the key to understanding the Fermi "paradox" is that most or
    > all civilizations are at the level 2 plateau, and thus virtually
    > undetectable for a long period of time.  >>
    >
    > This is exactly what Soviet astronomer Kardashev outlined in 1962.

    I believe Kardashev outlined *what* a level 2 civilization was, but
    not precisely how detectable or undetectable they would be. See:
      http://www.aeiveos.com/~bradbury/ETI/Authors/Kardashev-NS/ToIbEC.html

    > But, again, the sky does not crackle or beep with comprehensive signals. Nobody seems
    > to be putting out analog signals of some eight-legged Punch and Judy broadcast
    > either.

    If the lifetime of the transmission of broadcast signals is less than 100
    years (we *are* moving to cable and directed broadcast by satellite and
    will presumably get the "last mile" problem solved at some point), then
    the broadcast "window" of civilizations may be very short-lived (it *is*
    wasteful of energy resources). If so then the probability that we could
    detect any of them in our local neighborhood ("now") seems very small.

    Robert



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