From: Rafal Smigrodzki (rafal@smigrodzki.org)
Date: Mon Jul 28 2003 - 17:01:26 MDT
Robin wrote:
> FYI, our DARPA project (www.policyanalysismarket.com) has just been
> denounced by two senators:
> http://wyden.senate.gov/media/2003/07282003_terrormarket.html
>
>
> Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
> Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
> MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
> 703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323
### Congratulations! The attack from Poindexter and Wyden sounds exactly
like something you can expect from people who have no clue about the market,
and are accustomed to the command economy of the state. Do you think they
will succeed in killing the project?
Is there a way of discriminating manipulations of the market produced by
individuals intent on temporarily affecting the market (as opposed on wider
market forces)?
How would a terrorist who decides to sell futures on his planned attack try
to profit from this market? Could he establish credentials by e.g.
predicting an attack? Will he make money if his attack succeeds despite the
warning implied in the futures he is selling?
This is absolutely fascinating.
Rafal
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