RE: Fermi "Paradox"

From: Robin Hanson (rhanson@gmu.edu)
Date: Wed Jul 23 2003 - 18:40:20 MDT

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    On 7/23/2003, Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
    >I remember reading about an experiment on the growth of a colony of mice
    >in a limited space. ... the mice became too crowded ... After a few
    >more months all of them died.
    >... Let's say that a reliable modeling method predicts that
    >the existence of more than N independent volitional systems (minds with
    >independent, self-modifiable goals) within a volume of space inevitably
    >results in a destructive chain reaction of internecine warfare. In that
    >case, a coalition of minds might form, perhaps aided by techniques for
    >assuring transparency of motives, to keep the population below N, perhaps a
    >very low number, much less than the physical carrying capacity of the
    >substrate. If the coalition fails, all minds die like stupid mice. ...
    >I don't think this is the case, I tend to think that expansion and
    >proliferation will be decisive for successful survival at superhuman levels
    >of intelligence as well, but one never knows.

    I agree your scenario is logically possible, but it would need quite a bit
    more detail to make it plausible. If it were true, I'd expect the creation
    of N large "borgs", which still use up most of the physical carrying capacity.
    And note that this scenario is one of straight evolutionary selection, and
    not really of "self-directed evolution".

    Robin Hanson rhanson@gmu.edu http://hanson.gmu.edu
    Assistant Professor of Economics, George Mason University
    MSN 1D3, Carow Hall, Fairfax VA 22030-4444
    703-993-2326 FAX: 703-993-2323



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