From: matus (matus@matus1976.com)
Date: Mon Jul 21 2003 - 23:11:39 MDT
John said:
"This seems to me to be the most likely possibility. Clarke said any
sufficiently advanced civilization will be indistinguishable from magic.
I don't think he goes far enough ... indistinguishable from Nature,
perhaps, or indistinguishable from the vacuum of space, maybe."
I certainly would not consider that the most probably scenario. So,
intelligent life has arrived from elsewhere, and we don't know about it
because it is undetectable? Sounds like the old invisible dragon in
Carl sagan's garage to me.
We have no idea yet how probable life is to arise in the universe, if we
eventually find it reasonable to assume that intelligent life frequently
arises and produces technology, then their blatant absence from our
presence needs explaining. The most likely scenario in the face of
current evidence is NOT that they are simply invisible, but here...
this is unscientific. Their existing on levels we are unable to detect
is indistinguishable from not existing at all.
If it is found reasonable that intelligent life frequently evolves, then
their startling absence from our system stems from the most likely
explanation that, for some reason, they never start spreading out. The
most likely reason for that is that they end up dying off for some
reason. Of all the possible explanations for their absence, this is the
ONLY one that requires action on our part. Why do they die out? Was it
something they could have prevented, or was it unpreventable? If it was
preventable, they obviously did not do enough to prevent it.
Given the astounding history of civilization collapse, is it more
reasonable to assume we will rise above all our trivial violence and all
be god like super AI beings, or that eventually some idiot tribalist
does something so astoundingly stupid that all intelligent beings are
wiped out from that planet? If you don't think this is a possibility,
read some of the luddites and greens descriptions of what humans are
doing to earth, nature, etc. Phrases like raping, murdering, plundering
etc are used... What does one do with rapists or murderers? If that is
what a well motivated intelligent luddite thinks of humans, what might
he feel justified to do?
It seems unlikely to be coincidental that some people tend to embrace
the explanation that tends to require the least action.
Regards,
Michael Dickey
-----Original Message-----
From: owner-extropians@extropy.org [mailto:owner-extropians@extropy.org]
On Behalf Of Pvthur@aol.com
Sent: Monday, July 21, 2003 10:22 AM
To: extropians@extropy.org
Subject: Re: Fermi "Paradox" (was Extropian Productivity)
In a message dated 7/20/03 4:58:43 PM, lcorbin@tsoft.com writes:
> 4) it has evolved, is here, and is undetectable.
I've always thought that the most silly possibility. For what
reason would they make their presence so difficult to detect?
If they're made of ordinary matter, there is a lot of energy
that they are willingly ignoring.
I can just imagine Europeans in the 15th century asking,
"how do we know that we have not already ourselves been
colonized by a great Chinese fleet?", or wondering "should
we obey the Prime Directive if we encounter other peoples
below the equator or on faraway islands?".
This seems to me to be the most likely possibility. Clarke said any
sufficiently advanced civilization will be indistinguishable from magic.
I don't think he goes far enough ... indistinguishable from Nature,
perhaps, or indistinguishable from the vacuum of space, maybe. They
don't have to be made of ordinary matter at all. They could exist on
many levels that we are unable to detect. And they don't have to
necessarily be hiding from us. That simply may be where they live. And
have you considered that they my not care any more for our development
than we do about the future evolution of a tick?
Whether we evolve to their level or not may be of statistical interest
only to critters who live within the quantum fluctuations of the
hydrogen in your coffee.
John
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