Re: More Hard Problems Using Bayes' Theorem, Please

From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (sentience@pobox.com)
Date: Mon Jul 07 2003 - 23:19:10 MDT

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    Eliezer S. Yudkowsky wrote:

    > In front of me is one barrel containing 25 red tokens and 75 blue
    > tokens, and another barrel containing 75 red tokens and 75 blue tokens.
    > I select a barrel at random (i.e., by flipping a fair coin). Sampling a
    > random token with replacement, you observe the following sequence of draws:

    AAARRGGGHHH!

    *One* barrel containing 25 red tokens and 75 blue tokens, and one barrel
    containing 75 red tokens and ****25**** blue tokens.

    I don't understand how my eyes managed to skip over that, especially after
    I went back specifically and inspected for errors. It's even stranger
    that Mitch saw the same thing I did.

    Oh well... Paris in the spring.

    -- 
    Eliezer S. Yudkowsky                          http://singinst.org/
    Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
    


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