From: Dennis Fantoni (df@tdc-broadband.dk)
Date: Thu Jun 12 2003 - 09:11:20 MDT
> As I mentioned my statistical project these days is horse racing. I read
an
> interesting research report in a statistics journal about an apparent
> inefficiency in paramutual betting at the track: it seems that the most
> boring and conservative bets, (show bets on heavy favorites), have bigger
> pay-offs than they should have in an efficient market for bets. The
> statistics suggest that novices tend to bet on long shots for the sheer
> thrill and entertainment value, creating an opportunity for professionals
to
> make a profit on the favorites.
As i have not gone in the horsie direction yet, i guess it's safe to point
You to two sites that are quite handy when it comes to horses..
www.betbrain.com and www.oddsexchange.com both sites display multiple odds
on the race allmost real time.
Horse races are of the kind where the players set the odds. If enough
players don't know what they're doing, or if there are many combinations,
some of which are not played enough by chance - then You should get out
ahead if You can get enough information to see the betting landscape, if you
know the odds of the horses winning to a reasonable degree, and if you're
playing the right way at the right time. Unfortunately just a few pro
players will remove the imbalances - and if the players that play at the
last minute doesn't do as they usually do, you're toast anyway.
The long-shot bias is quite well defined and researched ( check
www.bjmath.com ) i have had some fun trying to calculate my way around it,
and earning some money while doing so. It is not always easy (or possible)
to get from idetifying an anomality to a system that makes you a steady
income. However, it seems i tend to get faster and faster at programming
what needs to be programmed and my systems perform more and more
predictably. Right now it is kind of a hobby for me to try to identify games
or investment areas where imbalances might be, and build systems that
exploit them. It would probably be infinitely more easy just to set up an
online casino and earn money that way - but it wouldn't be as intersting...
It takes a broad range of skills (or a little luck) to make it in the
gambling business - until now i'm just doing it for fun. My hourly wage is
way below what i could get as a contractor doing systems development. Just
to warn wanna-bee's i have been playing with numbers and games the last 21
years. I reinvented the basic probabillity math 3 years before i encountered
some of it in scool. I just started to break even with this kind of
ventures.. However, a skilled math guy with good logical sense and lots of
"feel" for probabillities might be able to build sufficient skills in a year
or two.
/Dennis
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