From: Dennis Fantoni (df@tdc-broadband.dk)
Date: Wed Jun 11 2003 - 15:06:49 MDT
> My former colleagues nicknamed me "The Wizard" because of my intense
> preoccupation with statistics and technical analysis. For years they
looked
> to me for advice about short term market trends. They were horrified when
> one day I stood up and proclaimed that the Emperor is wearing no clothes.
>
> -gts
Do You have some kind of reference to things that have been researched and
proved not to be useful for predicting stock prices? Like for instance
technical analysis patterns etc. ( i'm quite sure that most well known
patterns are of no use whatsoever)
I have a very hard time getting hold of historic stock data that are precise
enough to do research on. Especially information about analyst estimates and
sec filings seem to be a little hard to get at. I also need to know when
dividends were paid out, and when stocks were split, and merged etc. Zacks
data is quite expensive and on top of that, many of the interesting values
are not stored in a way that i can see what date they became publicly known.
Just getting hold of the data will be quite a challenge.
I hope to have taken my own historic data off the net during the next couple
of years.
My plan for the next couple of years is somewhat identical to the work you
seem to have done previously - to shoot down as many trading strategies as
possible, and perhaps, if i'm lucky, find a few that seem to work.
Until i have more results, i'll keep investing like i have started out.
Being long seemingly undervalued stocks, and being short anything
real-estate related that is also priced high on book value, earnings and has
a bad debt/equity ratio.
Reason for this setup is that i think i have a good system of calculating
intristic value ( so i should be able to get a few good value stocks through
my screens ) and because i think the dollar will fall significantly against
most other currencies, and the us real-estate market will collapse measured
in average us-citizen income.
/Dennis
This archive was generated by hypermail 2.1.5 : Wed Jun 11 2003 - 15:17:33 MDT