From: Hal Finney (hal@finney.org)
Date: Wed Jun 04 2003 - 11:47:48 MDT
I want to clarify something I wrote, because I think it was misinterpreted
and that led to further commentary that was off base.
I had written:
> Again, no one is postulating that we live in a simulation. That is
> a conclusion, which should not be confused with a premise.
and Harvey replied:
> I think this will be news to most people reading this list. Many of them
> think that Bostrom has lead them to the conclusion that we are "more likely
> than not" to be inside a simulation. If people want to reduce their
> position to say that there is a small but unproven chance that we might be
> in a simulation, I would have no objection.
Then Rafal commented, and things spun off. The problem is that in
my comment, I meant to emphasize the word "postulating". No one is
POSTULATING that we live in a simulation. That means, no one is assuming
it or taking it as a starting point. Rather, they are CONCLUDING that
we (likely) live in a simulation. A conclusion is the end of a chain of
reasoning; a postulate is the beginning. They are completely different,
which is what I was saying in my second sentence.
However, Harvey read me differently, to be saying that NO ONE was saying
that we lived in a simulation. That's not true; I do think there are
people who are persuaded enough by the Simulation Argument that they
think there is a good chance that we are living in a simulation. I did
not mean to say or imply that supporters of the SA are only taking the
weak position that the chance that we live in a simulation is small.
Unfortunately, in my discussion with Harvey, I don't think I was able to
get across the distinction I was trying to make. It is absolutely crucial
to distinguish between premises and conclusions when reasoning logically.
You can attack a premise directly; but to attack a conclusion, you have
to go back to the premises (or logic) of the argument which produced
that conclusion.
Deriving outlandish conclusions from plausible premises is the greatest
gift which we can receive from Logic. I feel that the DA and SA are
marvelous examples of this phenomenon.
Hal
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