Re: greatest threats to survival (was: why believe the truth?)

From: Hal Finney (hal@finney.org)
Date: Thu Jun 19 2003 - 10:59:26 MDT

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    Rafal had asked:
    > Is there a market future on the possibility of AGI
    > available on ideafutures?

    I believe AGI means "artificial general intelligence"? Something like
    that?

    There are no claims on the "FX" idea futures game specifically referring
    to this (I'm not sure how it differs from regular AI), but there are some
    related claims:

    http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=Robbie
    Claim Robbie - Humanly mobile robot, by 2036

    This claim describes a humanoid robot being in use as a worker in a
    business, consumer service, military, civil service or scientific
    capacity, before the year 2036. It is trading at 82%.

    http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=GoCh
    Claim GoCh - Machine GO Champion by 2020

    This is one of the oldest FX claims, going back to 1995. Go is generally
    considered a better test of general intelligence than chess, and computers
    are not very strong players compared to their chess abilities. It has
    traded mostly in the 40% to 70% range and is now back to the low end,
    at 45%.

    http://www.ideosphere.com/fx-bin/Claim?claim=Tran
    Claim Tran - Machine Translation by 2015

    This asks for a computer translation program that can go between English
    and one of French, German, Russian, Japanese or Chinese. The program has
    to produce output equal or better in average quality to a professional
    human translator. It is another old FX claim and has generally traded
    in the 60% to 80% range, now at 67%.

    While none of these claims ask precisely for an AI with fully human
    capabilities, to some extent they would each require approximately
    that level. The Go claim requires a very high level of ability, but of
    course the problem domain is much simpler.

    If you could come up with a definition of AI (or AGI, whatever), that
    would provide clear criteria for judgement in some time frame, I could
    introduce it as a claim. Anyone can add claims to the game.

    Hal



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