From: Dehede011@aol.com
Date: Sun Jun 15 2003 - 21:04:11 MDT
In a message dated 6/15/2003 9:46:57 PM Central Standard Time,
rhanson@gmu.edu writes: Of course not everyone is rational; all that speculative trading
going on is proof of that. But when making a bet you should ask yourself why you
think you are *more* rational than the folks you are betting with. Yes, some
people are probably more rational that others. But clearly most people
over-estimate their own rationality. So do you feel lucky, punk? I'm told that an
old poker adage is that there is a fool at every table; if you look around
the table and don't see him, he's you.
Robin,
Let me try an argument on you, and the list, if only to get knocked
down and hence learn.
I say the market may not be rational in the sense that you can
reliably predict movement. But it is emotional. If like Buffet you know what you
want to pay for various good stocks -- in order to make the return you want --
you will find from time to time people emotional enough to sell good stocks at
cheap prices.
That seems to be what Buffet has essentially been doing for close to
fifty years and he has made a mint trying it.
Ron h.
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