From: Rafal Smigrodzki (rafal@smigrodzki.org)
Date: Sat Jun 14 2003 - 22:48:41 MDT
----- Original Message -----
From: "Olga Bourlin" <fauxever@sprynet.com>
To: <extropians@extropy.org>
Sent: Saturday, June 14, 2003 5:48 PM
Subject: Re: Investing
> From: "gts" <gts_2000@yahoo.com>
>
> > Rafal Smigrodzki wrote:
> >
> > >> Neither intelligence nor knowledge of public information buys
> > >> one a superior return in the market.
> >
> > > ### Yes, it does. If you understand a technology while others
> > > don't, all other factors being equal, you win.
> >
> > That's the theory, anyway. Now please find the evidence to support it.
I'd
> > love to see it.
>
> There are individual investors who are making money - "bull" market or
> "bear" or "fair-to-middling" market. I personally know *several* people
who
> are doing this - making consistent percentage returns (amounting to
> exponential gains), and investing their excess money (i.e., money
> over-and-above an amount they need for their daily expenses) into other
> investments, like real estate. They are their own evidence. Rafal
(correct
> me if I am wrong, doc) is not saying the majority of investors are making
> money (much less lots and lots of money), but that if "you" (even if one
> person) understands ... etc. ... "you" (that one person) wins.
>
> What kind of evidence and how much evidence would you need? We can all
find
> statistical evidence for investors and traders in the stock market - but
> that's not the point here. There *are* people who do well, so they must
be
> doing "something right."
### Specifically, if the distribution of gains is not the normal curve (the
function of the number of traders plotted against the gains they make), but
shows a skew, or a secondary peak, this would be strong evidence for the
existence of traders who really know better than others.
Rafal
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