From: Dossy (dossy@panoptic.com)
Date: Sat Jun 14 2003 - 21:41:44 MDT
On 2003.06.14, gts <gts_2000@yahoo.com> wrote:
> Ahh, the "follow the smart money" theory.
>
> Problem here is that science has never been able to prove the existence of
> smart money in the market.
I'm not interested in proving anything. The strategy of "buy a
sweetheart, hold it until it goes up 10% and sell it" seems to work
pretty well.
Sure, you'll pick the wrong sweethearts once in a while. But, if you're
good at picking the next sweetheart ... you can do 25%-35% a year even
in the past two or three years, where people were whining about being
7% down in their portfolios.
Hell, even a conservative person can do 10%-12% a year, which sure beats
that 3% chump-change they give you at the bank ...
gts, while I agree with you that there's nothing "scientific" here -- if
there were, the market would collapse because everyone would know how to
"win" and nobody would "lose" because they'd just follow the science ...
and since it's a zero-sum game, this would cause things to pretty much
come to a stop. I'm not interested in whether there IS science here ...
but a usable and useful short term strategy for continuously growing my
net worth.
Some day, this strategy might fall apart. But then, I'm only exposed to
losing 10% of my worth -- limits are a good thing.
The most important things to have if you're playing the market is a
strategy (good or bad, doesn't matter really), and discipline to follow
the strategy. It's when you lack either a clear strategy to follow or
the discipline to follow it ... is when you see people losing their
shirts. Part of the strategy is, of course, to "know when to fold 'em."
-- Dossy
-- Dossy Shiobara mail: dossy@panoptic.com Panoptic Computer Network web: http://www.panoptic.com/ "He realized the fastest way to change is to laugh at your own folly -- then you can let go and quickly move on." (p. 70)
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