From: Spudboy100@aol.com
Date: Sat Jun 14 2003 - 18:30:18 MDT
Dr. Sandburg opined:
<<Which I actually think much of the oil debate is
in: even if we ignore our transhumanizing technology speculations, it is
fairly clear that simple nanotech (like photovoltaics and smart
materials), biotech and simple AI can change the situation tremendously.
We might never build replicating robots for solar power manufacture (one
of my favorites), but that is a technology that seems believable for
mid-century, and stuff like genemod biofuels, nuclear power, hydrogen
economy, methane pools, photovoltaic roads etc are far less drastic. --
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Anders Sandberg Towards Ascension! >>
My suspicion is that after wating most of my life for super-duper technical
advances to occur, such as what the good Dr. has listed, I am suspicious that
the most likely road ahead is the discovery and application of new natural gas
(methane for our European friends) resources. Best guess for location is in
Alaska, and overseas, in a grand replication of OPEC. Gasoline will still be the
primary means of transportation, and it will be increasingly derived from
natural gas.
By 2030, expect to see the creation of AMEN, the Association of Methane Gas
Exporting Nations. For example, one big current and future natural gas
exporters is Indonesia. Future conflicts will be when Indonesia cuts off gas supplies
unless Australia acccepts several million more immigrants from Indonesia over
the next several years.
Well, anyway, I guess most of us are far beyond utopian expectations for the
future (feel free to chime in if you disagree) but even a crummy scenario as
listed above is no worse than how things have happended over the last 60 years.
I am guessing that TV and computer games will be just as fun or even better.
:-)
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