From: Eliezer S. Yudkowsky (firstname.lastname@example.org)
Date: Sat Jun 14 2003 - 16:32:32 MDT
Olga Bourlin wrote:
> What kind of evidence and how much evidence would you need? We can all
> find statistical evidence for investors and traders in the stock market
> - but that's not the point here. There *are* people who do well, so
> they must be doing "something right."
Does not follow. There are people who win the lottery; it doesn't mean
that those people alone have discovered the secret pattern of winning
numbers. It means that a lot of people tried, and a few succeeded, at the
chance probability. Are there more investors who do well than chance
would lead you to expect?
-- Eliezer S. Yudkowsky http://singinst.org/ Research Fellow, Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence
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