Re: Status of Superrationality

From: Hal Finney (hal@finney.org)
Date: Wed May 28 2003 - 15:13:30 MDT

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    Regarding the question of whether different altruists could have differnet
    goals, Wei wrote:

    > But the totalist and the averagist do not have the same goals. One wants
    > to maximize total happiness, and the other wants to maximize average
    > happiness.

    A couple of comments on this. First, I think it was Wei himself who
    pointed out to me a few years ago that the "averagist" philosophy is
    internally inconsistent. This is the view that we should maximize
    the average happiness of human beings, i.e. the sum of all happiness
    divided by the number of people. The problem is that half the people
    are of below average happiness, hence they are dragging down the curve.
    By killing off the less happy half of the human race, we can greatly
    increase average happiness, hence this is an acceptable goal for the
    averagist. However it does not stop there, for having done so, the
    remaining half can once again be divided in to the more and less happy,
    and we can justify killing off the less happy half of the remainder.
    This is repeated until only one person is left, the single happiest
    individual of the entire human race, who probably has something wrong
    with him.

    I think that totalism is also flawed, as there is no absolute scale on
    which to measure happiness. Decision theory shows that utility scales
    are arbitrary up to (at least) a linear transformation. That means
    that we can't tell whether a person has a net positive or a net negative
    happiness. If we measure happiness on a scale from 1-10 then it's always
    positive. If we measure it from -10 to 10 it might be negative. I would
    argue that there is no meaningful answer to the question of whether a
    given person's net happiness contributes positively or negatively to
    the total for the whole human race. And of course this leaves aside
    the whole problem of inter-personal comparisons of utility.

    Now, these are rather simplistic analyses. In practice, altruists
    probably have different degrees of weighting which they would apply to
    the happiness of people and the total number of people. I believe that
    virtually all altruists will have a degree of uncertainty about whether
    a given increment in the number of people is balanced by a decrement in
    average happiness, or vice versa.

    Based on this uncertainty, I still think it is possible that altruists
    actually do agree on their goals, but disagree on how to get there.
    The issues of how to balance different people's levels of happiness,
    as well as how to weight the total number of people, are questions of
    tactics and not fundamental goals. The goal is to maximize the happiness
    of the human race. Philosophical, scientific and pragmatic uncertainty
    makes it hard to know how best to achieve that goal. From these areas
    of uncertainty arise the disagreements among altruists about the best
    course of action.

    I'll send another message discussing the "inability to disagree" results.

    Hal



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