From: Anders Sandberg (asa@nada.kth.se)
Date: Sat May 24 2003 - 17:40:00 MDT
On Sat, May 24, 2003 at 03:22:00PM -0400, gts wrote:
>
> Most importantly, and most obviously in my view, we need to find a way to
> solve the problem of overpopulation, a problem which became real as a result
> of the agricultural revolution. This is a serious problem we face at least
> until such time as we find a way to colonize other planets. I would rather
> see 6 billion healthy educated prosperous humans on Earth than 50 billion
> impoverished humans scrambling desperately for their share of limited
> resources.
Not that one again. You are worrying about an obsolete disaster. The
idea of a "population bomb" was very popular in the middle 20th century,
based on the observed exponential growth of populations. But that is
just the first knee of the demographic transition (caused by decreases
in mortality); as societies get wealthier they slow down reproduction.
This occured first in the West and is now occuring worldwide. The latest
UN demographic prognosis suggests a levelling off at 8-10 billion people
in mid century, and later revisions all seem to lower the numbers. Other
studies point in the same direction, and we are already seeing serious
problems with beginning population decrease in affluent parts of the
world (not to mention the disasters of Africa).
Today you will not find overpopulation on the agenda in international
aid but rather poverty. It is the real issue: when people are poor they
cannot buy food and hence will have to rely on low-tech, inefficient
food production methods they cannot improve. Similarly for health and
many other issues. 8-10 billion people is nothing to sneeze at, and will
cause some tricky problems. But these problems are surmountable since
people themselves are the ultimate resource (as Julian Simon pointed
out): they have brainpower, they can work, they are interested in making
the world better for them and their kin and hence act as a huge
transforming force. If we need more resources we can make better use of
those we have or find new ones. When I was a kid someone told me that
the Chinese would never be able to build a phone system because of the
immense amount of copper needed, but by replacing copper telephone lines
with fiber optics and wireless they are doing fine. But this process
requires that people have enough economic leeway/freedom to develop new
technologies, act as entrepreneurs and choose between alternatives.
-- ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Anders Sandberg Towards Ascension! asa@nada.kth.se http://www.nada.kth.se/~asa/ GCS/M/S/O d++ -p+ c++++ !l u+ e++ m++ s+/+ n--- h+/* f+ g+ w++ t+ r+ !y
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