Re: [Liberal Bias] Leftist Spin on Twisters

From: Hal Finney (hal@finney.org)
Date: Sun May 18 2003 - 19:14:41 MDT

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    I did some googling to learn more about the increase
    in tornados, and found this article from Science News,
    http://www.sciencenews.org/20020511/bob9.asp. In my experience they
    are generally a good, objective magazine.

       Meteorologists have reliable, comprehensive statistics only for
       tornadoes during the past 50 years or so, says Joseph T. Schaefer,
       a meteorologist at the National Weather Service's Storm Prediction
       Center in Norman, Okla. The number of twisters reported from year to
       year is highly variable. Over the decades, however, the average number
       has been increasing by a dozen or so each year. In the 1960s, there
       were about 650 twisters reported annually. In the 1990s, the average
       was more than 1,100. Schaefer discussed this finding at the annual
       meeting of the American Meteorological Society in Orlando last January.

       What's causing the proliferation? "It's probably not climate change,"
       says Schaefer. "It's people change."

       As people move out of cities and disperse over larger areas, they are
       more likely to spot tornadoes. As increasing media coverage makes
       travelers and residents of suburbs and exurbs more weather-aware,
       they are more likely to report twisters. The growing popularity of
       cellular phones, which enable people on the road or in areas of downed
       phone lines to call in sightings to emergency centers, will probably
       continue to fuel the apparent increase, Schaefer speculates.

    Now, this is just one man's opinion, but he is apparently a well qualified
    expert with the National Weather Service.

    I found some tornado statistics at the NOAA web site. The 2000-2003 data
    is at http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/monthlytornstats.html,
    with stats back to the 1950s available at
    http://www.spc.noaa.gov/archive/tornadoes/ustdbmy.html. Interestingly,
    although there is an increasing trend as mentioned above, and the first
    ten days of May, 2003 were the worst for tornados in decades, 2002 was
    actually quite a low year, the lowest since 1988. There is considerable
    fluctuation in the numbers, but last year was quite unusual considering
    the trend.

    Anyway, I know it's much more fun to go back and argue about who said
    what, and on whom the burden of proof currently lies. Let me know when
    you get that figured out - I can't wait!

    Hal



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